The Chart Pattern Trader

2/1

2012-02-01T07:26:00.000-08:00

Yesterday's stock video is at the bottom of the page.

ISM Index

US manufacturing sector posted its strongest growth since last June.

The US ISM manufaturing data came in at 54.1 [where 50 separates expansion from contraction]. That's up from 53.1 in December. Falling short of the number Wall Street analysts had forecasted. While positive, this is still a very weak number.

Credit crunch fears reared up this morning, after the European Central Bank warned that Europe's financial institutions tightened credit standards in the fourth quarter.

The ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey also found that banks expect to make it harder for businesses and individuals to obtain loans in the first three months of this year. There was also a drop in demand for mortgages and other home loans.

Portugal's Short-Term Debt Auction Still Showing Some Distress

There was relief for Portugal as a sale of €1.5bn of short-term bonds went without a hitch. The yields on three-month bonds fell to 4.06%, down from 4.34% in mid-January, while six-month bills were bought at a yield of 4.49%, down from 4.74%.

These lower yields are still a sign of some distress, long term yields are substantially higher.

Portuguese Bond Yields Fall in Solid Auction

US Manufacturing, Construction Pick Up in January

Auto Sales Rise in January, Though GM Sees Decline

1/31 Stock Market Video

2012-01-31T09:08:00.000-08:00

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S&P Warns of Cuts; Another US Downgrade Coming?

Euro Zone Jobless Hits Highest Level Since Birth of Euro

Latest Congressional Budget Outlook For 2012-2022 Released, Says Real Unemployment Rate Is 10%

CBO: Taxes Will ‘Shoot Up by More Than 30 Percent’ Over Next 2 Years

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1/30

2012-01-29T22:52:00.000-08:00

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Italian Auction:

Italy sold €5.57bn worth of five and ten-year bonds (having aimed to sell a maximum of €6bn). The interest rates demanded by investors fell significantly, to the lowest levels since October.

Yields on the 10-year bonds dropped to 6.08%, down from 6.98% at the previous auction at the end of December, and was over-subscribed.

The five-year bonds sold at an average yield of 5.39%, down from 6.47%, but the total sold – €3.6bn – was some way shy of the €4bn target.

This follows a trend of successful bond auctions in 2012, after the €500bn of low-cost loans which commercial banks took from the European Central Bank in December.

Today's yields still put Italy firmly in the "worrying" camp – but there should be relief that they were below the 7% mark (where the "danger zone" is said to begin).

It's official - Spain's economy is shrinking

Data released in the last few minutes showed that Spanish GDP fell by 0.3% in the last three months of 2011, compared with the previous quarter. That's the first contraction in eight quarters. Spain admits it miss growth targets.

It's the second blow to hit Spain in recent days – last Friday, unemployment smashed through the five-million mark, putting the jobless rate at 22.8%.

The Next Test is the Spanish Auction Feb. 2

Spain sells notes due in July 2015, October 2016 and January 2017 on Feb. 2. The nation’s bonds have returned 2.5 percent this month, including reinvested interest, extending a 6.9 percent increase in December, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. Italian debt earned 5.8 percent in 2012, the second most among 26 bond market indexes. These will be short term autions.

The yield on the Spanish 10-year bond fell 24 basis points to 4.97 percent on Jan. 27, with the two-year note yield dropping for the sixth consecutive day. The 10-year Italian yield was 15 basis points lower at 5.90 percent, with the short- dated yield tumbling for the fourth successive week.

Most banks tightening credit to Europe, Fed says

Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact

Greek Bondholders May Face 70% 'Haircut': Source

1/28 Stock Market Video

2012-01-27T22:10:00.001-08:00

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US GPD for 2011 Shrinks to 1.7 %

The good news — the annualized GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter went up a full point from Q3′s final number to 2.8%. The bad news: the first estimate for Q4 is only three-tenths of a point better than the first estimate for Q3, which came in at 2.5 %. It dropped by 20 % in the second estimate to 2.0. The final Q3 number came in a just 1.8 %. So I fully expect Q4 GDP to also be revised down.

But the economy actually on grew by 1.7% in 2011. From the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual level, we grew at 1.7% compared to 3% GDP growth in 2010. We almost cut our economic growth in half on the downside! The annual level of 1.7 % clearly shows that the economy is in trouble, and and that economic growth is rapidly shrinking.

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent

Inventories increased $56.0 billion, adding 1.94 percentage points to GDP growth. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a tepid 0.8 percent rate, a sharp step-down from the prior period’s 3.2 percent pace.

Fitch Downgrades the Eurozone:

Hopes of a Greek debt deal were undermined on Friday night after Fitch downgraded the ratings of five eurozone countries, including Italy and Spain.

Fitch cut Italy's rating to A-minus from A-plus; Spain to A from AA-minus; Belgium to AA from AA-plus; Slovenia to A from AA-minus and Cyprus to BBB-minus from BBB, leaving the small island nation just one notch above junk status.

Ireland's rating of BBB-plus was affirmed.

All of the ratings were given negative outlooks.

Fitch took no action on France's AAA credit rating despite S&P downgrading the country two weeks ago.

Fitch's announcement follows a downgrade earlier this month by Standard & Poor's of nine euro zone countries, including Spain and Italy.

Spain's unmployment rate hits 22.8 %

Bad news from Spain where the number of people out of work has risen above 5 million. The National Statistics Institute said 5.3 million people, or 22.8%, were out of work at the end of December, up from 4.9 million in the third quarter.

Portuguese 10-year bond yields hit 15.6% this morning.

Many economists appear to have lost faith in Portugal's ability to return to the financial markets as planned. A Reuters survey of City economists found that 70% believe the country will need a second bailout.

Portugal has been under pressure since Standard & Poor's downgraded it to Junk status almost two weeks ago. Its borrowing costs hit a new record high this week of 15.6 %.

Credit Crunch: Lending and Money Supply Figures Released by the ECB

More evidence of a fresh credit crunch in Europe comes in the form of money supply figures out this morning.

The European Central Bank (ECB) reported that annual growth in overall loans to the eurozone private sector slowed to 1% in December from 1.7% in November and 2.7% in October. Lending to non-financial corporations fell by €37bn in December, which caused the year-on-year growth rate to retreat sharply to 1.1% from 1.6% in November and 1.8% in October. Lending to households also fell back. The ECB also reported that annual eurozone money-supply growth slowed sharply to 1.6% in December from 2.0% in November, 2.6% in October and a peak of 2.9% in September.

Eurozone data raises fears of second credit crunch

British GDP Contracted

GDP figures indicated the British economy had contracted 0.2pc during the final quarter of last year and was set for another recession.

2011 GDP: 1.7%

World stocks dip as U.S. GDP falls short

Fitch downgrades 5 eurozone countries

Greek debt deal hit by eurozone ratings downgrades]

Fitch cuts Italy, Spain, other euro zone ratings

Portuguese Yields at New Highs; Greek Talks Plod On

Daniel Hannan: The solution to the euro crisis? A European credit rating agency!

Video: Lagarde Not `Terribly Positive' on Greek Progress

U.S. fourth-quarter GDP falls short of expectations

Europe Avoided 'Major Credit Crunch': ECB Official

Growth quickens, but speed bumps ahead

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1/26 Stock Market Video

2012-01-26T18:41:00.000-08:00

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Durable goods data points to economic momentum

Investors fear mounting losses in Portugal as second rescue looms

1/25 Stock Market Video

2012-01-25T17:52:00.000-08:00

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Greece:

The news that the IIF is returning to Greece, the news comes after the Greek government threatened to force losses on creditors if a restructuring deal could not be agreed. Failure to reach a deal by March, when Athens must repay €14.5bn of maturing debt, could result in a disorderly default.

Portugueses 10-year bonds hit 14.3 % Yesterday

There are rumours that Portugal may need a second bailout. Despite Lisbon's labour market reforms, financial markets fear the country could be next in line to default after Greece – whose debt deal with private creditors has just been rejected by eurozone finance ministers. According to financial data firm Markit, Portuguese debt insurance costs have hit record levels.

The yield on Portuguese 10-year bonds is around 14.3% this morning, showing that investors are pricing in a significant risk that the debt will be restructured.

Bernanke says Fed pondering further stimulus

Bernanke Pledges to Keep Rates Low Thru 2014: A “Very Pessimistic” Outlook, Former Fed VP Says

Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from financial meltdown

Greek creditors heading back to Athens

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1/24 Stock Market Video

2012-01-24T18:10:00.000-08:00

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The next shoe to drop, Portuagal!

The Gaurdian reports:

There are rumours that Portugal may need a second bailout. Despite Lisbon's labour market reforms, financial markets fear the country could be next in line to default after Greece – whose debt deal with private creditors has just been rejected by eurozone finance ministers. According to financial data firm Markit, Portuguese debt insurance costs have hit record levels.

Spainish Auction of short-term debt:

Spain sold €2.5bn of short-term debt at sharply lower borrowing costs, and received bids for €13.5bn worth of debt.

The yield on Spanish three-month debt dropped to 1.285% (down from 1.735% at the last auction of this type), while it got its six-month paper away at 1.847% (down from 2.435%).

George Soros predicts class war and riots

IMF cuts growth forecasts as euro crisis deepens

World economic outlook from the IMF: just how bad will things get?

Greek creditors defiant after EU ministers reject deal

Euro Crisis in 'Perilous New Phase': IMF

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1/23

2012-01-23T16:48:00.000-08:00

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Germany Rejects Bigger Bailout

Germany rejects calls for bigger eurozone bail-out fund

Eurozone finance ministers reject Greek debt offer

IMF chief unveils euro plan and warns of '1930s moment

Daniel Hannan: We're being sent the bill for the euro crisis again – this time by the IMF

For Greece default is the only option

Greek debt deal: Banks say 'we've made our best offer, it's up to EU and IMF bailout providers now'

Euro Zone Ministers Reject Bondholders' Greece Offer

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1/20 Stock Market Video

2012-01-20T20:16:00.000-08:00

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Greek debt swap negotiators depart Athens without deal

Greek debt talks on knife-edge amid growing IMF pressure on bondholders

IIF says creditors at limits of "voluntary" Greek deal

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Exsisting Home Sales

Sales of previously-owned homes rose for the third consecutive month in December, reaching an 11-month high as the supply of properties on the market dropped to a near 7-year low, the National Association of Realtors reported today.

IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast for 2012

The International Monetary Fund's latest forecasts have been leaked, as usual, ahead of official publication next week.

The Gaurdian reports:

The IMF has slashed its global growth forecast for this year, blaming the eurozone debt crisis. It reckons the world economy will grow by 3.3% rather than 4% as predicted previously. Italy's economy is forecast to shrink by 2.2% and Spain's by 1.7% as tough austerity measures and weak bank lending plunge the countries into at least two years of recession.

"The global recovery is threatened by the growing tensions in the euro area," the Fund said, according to a leaked draft of its World Economic Outlook.

"The most immediate political challenge is to re-establish confidence and put an end to the euro area crisis, supporting growth," said the draft, obtained by the Italian news agency Ansa.

The eurozone as a whole will shrink by 0.5% this year, compared with the IMF's last forecast of 1.1% growth in September.

Greece, Creditors Near Debt Swap Deal With 70% Loss

Greece, creditors close in on debt cut deal

Greece Moves Closer to Debt-Swap Accord With Private Investors

Greek creditors say debt swap deal coming together

Italian and Spanish banks see billions withdrawn

France and Germany plan for EU-wide tax regime

AAII Sentiment Survey still hints of complacency

Existing Home Sales Rose 5 Percent in December

Oil falls as weak demand outlook trumps IMF hopes

EU’s Ratings Affirmed by S&P; Outlook Negative

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1/19

2012-01-19T06:46:00.000-08:00

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The Guardian reports:

The French and Spanish bond auctions go well, perhaps indicative given the short-dated nature of these issues, of the ongoing demand for such maturities on the back of the ECB's LTRO facility.

French auction:

The French Treasury has sold €8bn of debt, close to the maximum amount targeted. It sold €2.96bn of 2014 bonds, at an average yield of 1.05%; €1.58bn of 2015 bonds, at a yield of 1.5%; and €3.4bn of 2016 bonds, at a yield of 1.89%.

Spainish auction:

Spain's bond sales have gone well. It has sold more than €6.6bn of longer-term debt, drawing better than expected demand at yields broadly in line with market expectations. Madrid had hoped to raise €4.5bn.

The Spanish Treasury sold €1.3bn of 2016 bonds, €2.3bn of 2019 bonds and €3bn of 2022 bonds. The biggest test of market sentiment was the ten-year issue, the first since mid-December.

Demand was solid, with the bid-to-cover ratio for the 2016 auction at 3.2, compared with 1.7 at the previous auction, while the bid-to-cover ratio for the 2019 sale was 2 against 2.1 at the previous auction, and that for the 2022 auction was 2.2, up from 1.5.

The average yield in the 2016 auction was 4%, up from 3.9% at the last auction, while yields in the 2019 and 2022 bond sales were lower, at 4.5%, down from 5.1% at the previous auction, and 5.4% respectively, against 6.98%.

Commodities:

Commodities are rising on hopes that the IMF will beef up its bailout funds. Copper has hit a four-month high while gold is also up and Brent crude oil has pushed through $111 a barrel.

Greece, creditors make little progress as clock ticks

Greece, Creditors Seem to Be Near A Deal on Debt

Moody's warns it will likely cut big bank ratings

IMF slashes global forecast on eurozone crisis, with drastic falls in Italy and Spain

Eurozone crisis will cause more company defults, warns S&P

Portugal to need "debt haircut" as economy tips into Grecian downward spiral

Doubt over IMF's eurozone lifeline

Unemployment claims at 352,000, fewest since 2008

Economy improves but recovery hurdles persist

Treasury dips into pension funds to avoid debt

1/18

2012-01-18T18:07:00.000-08:00

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1/17

2012-01-17T06:17:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the delay, the video processed very slowly this evening. The video is posted below the headlines. I will post early tomorrow. I'll try and have tomorrow's video up by 6:15 p.m. PST.

Greek PM says creditors may be forced to take losses: report

The Guardian is reporting:

Overnight Deposits Hit Another Record Level Last Night

Europe's banks stashed more than half a trillion euros with the European Central Bank last night – a record figure.

The ECB just announced that its overnight deposit facility took in €501.9bn last night, up from €493bn on Friday evening.

Overnight deposits at the ECB have been hitting record levels in recent weeks, ever since the ECB pumped almost €500bn of cheap loans into the system in an effort to avoid a new credit crunch.

The ECB has denied that the banks who took these loans are now simply lending the money back to the central bank. However, the data is a sign of unease in the financial system. Banks are clearly happier to leave their excess capital in the ECB's vaults (where it will attract a very low interest rate) rather than either lending to each other or to the wider economy. That suggests a lack of trust in each other, concern that loans to other businesses could turn sour, or simply a fear that they face further writedowns on their own assets.

Today's auctions:

Spain auctions €4bn-€5bn of 12 and 18-month Treasury bills
Greek, Malta, Belgium debt auctions - morning
EFSF auctions €1.5bn of 6-month debt for Portugal and Ireland

Could another agency downgrade the EFSF too? I would suspect that Moody's is more likely than Fitch. Moody's said yesterday that it would make a decision on France's AAA by the end of March. Fitch, though, has said it is likely to leave France on AAA with negative outlook until next year.

EFSF Auction: Don’t Get Too Excited

Spain clears short-term debt test, bigger hurdle looms

France facing key bond test after downgrade

Greek protesters take to Athens streets as creditors arrive for debt talks

World Bank warns of global recession

Fitch Says Greece to Default, Believes Will Be Orderly

Shares Steady, Focus on Portugal Debt Sale

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1-13 Friday the 13th

2012-01-13T20:24:00.000-08:00

The stock market video is under the commentary and headlines near the bottom of the page.

The Guardian reports:

Here's a full list of tonight's ratings actions from S&P:

France: Downgraded by one notch, from AAA to AA+. Negative Outlook.
Austria: Downgraded by one notch, from AAA to AA+. Negative Outlook.
Malta: Downgraded by one notch, from A to A-. Negative Outlook.
Slovenia: Downgraded by one notch, from AA- to A+. Negative Outlook
Slovak Republic: Downgraded by one notch, from A+ to A. Stable Outlook

Cyprus: Downgraded by two notches, from BBB to BB+. Negative Outlook
Italy: Downgraded by two notches, from A to BBB+. Negative Outlook
Portugal: Downgraded by two notches, from BBB- to BB. Negative Outlook
Spain: Downgraded by two notches, from AA- to A. Negative Outlook.

Belgium: Unchanged at AA. Negative Outlook.
Finland: Unchanged at AAA. Negative Outlook
Ireland: Unchanged at BBB+. Negative Outlook
Luxembourg: Unchanged at AAA. Negative Outlook
The Netherlands: Unchanged at AAA. Negative Outlook

Germany: Unchanged at AAA. Stable Outlook

The EFSF likely to lose its AAA rating next

So what now for the European Financial Stability Facility (the bailout fund)?

The word from S&P is that it will "will publish our updated credit view in the coming days" on Europe's bailout mechanism. A downgrade feels almost certain.

The French downgrade now poses serious consequences for Europe's bailout rescue mechanism, the European Financial Stability Facility.

The EFSF is the vehicle that borrows the money for Greece, Ireland and Portugal -- the three countries that have signed up for financial rescue packages with the International Monetary Fund. At present, the EFSF (run by Klaus Regling) has a AAA rating, reflecting the credit-worthiness of the six countries who fund it -- Germany, France, Holland, Austria, Finland, and Luxembourg.

Most of the funding comes from Europe's two largest economies, so now that France has been downgraded then it is inconceivable that the EFSF would not follow. And if the EFSF loses its AAA, then its own cost of borrowing would probably increase.

The cut in France's rating is a serious setback for Sarkozy's chances of re-election in May and could weaken the euro zone's rescue fund, reducing its ability to help countries in difficulty.

France is the second largest guarantor of the EFSF, which has a triple-A rating. Preserving that status would require members to increase their guarantees, which could prove politically unpopular.

Greek bank talks collapse

Greek bankruptcy threat looms as debt restructuring talks break down

Elsewhere in the Eurozone crisis, talks between Greece and its private sector creditors appear to be on the brink of collapse tonight. In a very worrying development, the negotiations have been suspended after the two sides were unable to make progress on Greece's debt reduction.

The IIF, which represents the investors who hold Greek debt, released this statement this afternoon:

"Discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach. We very much hope, however, that Greece, with the support of the Euro Area, will be in a position to re-engage constructively with the private sector with a view to finalizing a mutually acceptable agreement on a voluntary debt exchange."

The two sides have been trying to hammer out a deal under which private investors take a haircut of up to 50% on their Greece's sovereign bonds, along with up to €100bn of debt forgiveness.

If that deal cannot be agreed, then Greece will not get its next aid tranche (Angela Merkel made that very clear on Monday). Without that money, Greece cannot repay €14bn of debt which mature in March. The chances of Greece defaulting, in a disorderly manner, have just risen significantly.

Banks say no deal on Greek debt

Italy's three-year debt costs have fallen below 5%. Today's long-awaited bond auction did not disappoint: The Italian Treasury has sold the entire €4.75bn of bonds it was looking to dispose of, with the yield at the 3-year auction hitting the lowest level since September.

Italian bond auction:

Italy's three-year debt costs have fallen below 5%. Today's long-awaited bond auction did not disappoint: The Italian Treasury has sold the entire €4.75bn of bonds it was looking to dispose of, with the yield at the 3-year auction hitting the lowest level since September.

Italy sold bonds maturing in November 2014 at an average rate of 4.83%, down from 5.62% it paid a fortnight ago. However, the bond sale was covered only 1.22 times compared with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.36 at the end of December.

S&P Cuts Ratings on France, Italy, Other European Countries

S&P Cuts Credit Ratings for Nine Euro Zone Nations

Euro plunges on France rating fears

Eurozone crisis: signs of hope … then credit agencies strike

Eurozone back on the brink as France has credit rating downgraded
Downgrade of Debt Ratings Underscores Europe’s Woes

Forbes: The Worst Economic Recovery Since The Great Depression

Greece races to tie up writedown deal before debt repayments fall due

U.S. Debt Nears $15.194 Trillion Ceiling

Italy bond auction fails to match Spanish success

Daniel Hannan: If this new text is agreed, the veto was for nothing

Hannan interview from last week:

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1-13 Alert

2012-01-13T06:28:00.000-08:00

Loads of downgrade rumours on Twitter again today... sparked by Reuters reporting that Standard & Poor's is set to downgrade several eurozone countries today, but Germany is not amongst them, citing senior eurozone sources. Well it is Friday the 13th.

S&P to cut some euro zone countries on Friday - source

Futures Add to Losses on S&P Downgrade Report

S&P Downgrade of Some Euro Zone States 'Imminent': Report

You can see yesterday's stock market video at the bottom of the page.

1-12 Stock Market Video

2012-01-12T16:35:00.000-08:00

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Rates

The Guardian reports:

ECB holds interest rate at 1%

No change. The Bank of England has held interest rates at the record-low of 0.5% and QE at £275m.

Greece and private creditors continue talks

Reuters reports:

Greece and its private-sector creditors are now involved in a race against time to finalise a debt writedown deal over the next 48 hours that will prevent the troubled country from defaulting on its massive debts.

Reuters is reporting that Greece could clinch a debt-swap deal with its creditors by "the end of next week", in time to make a formal offer in early February.

Spanish and Italian auctions

Forbes reports:

The stock market unimpressed with the auctions, failing to rally on the news.

Bidders required a yield of 2.735% for €8.5 billion in 12-month Italian debt, down from 5.95% a month ago and 1.644% for €3.5 billion in shorter-term paper, down from 3.251% in the prior auction. In Spain, buyers took almost €10 billion in bonds due in 2015 and 2016 at yields below previous offerings.

The smooth auctions bore out in the secondary market, where the Italian 10-year yield dropped to 6.61%, from near 7% Wednesday, while Spanish 10-years fell to 5.13%, from more than 5.26%.

Greece Scrambles To Complete Debt Talks As Economy Tumbles

Borrowing Costs Fall for Italy and Spain in Debt Auctions

U.S. Stocks Unmoved By Lower Borrowing Costs In Italy, Spain

Central Banks 'Printing Money Like Gangbusters': Gross

Retail sales weak, jobless claims up

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1/11 Stock Market Video

2012-01-11T16:45:00.000-08:00

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The Guardian is reporting:

Greece and private creditors are inching closer to a deal on a bond swap to halve the country's debt load. Charles Dallara, the head of the Institute for International Finance which represents global banks and insurers, is expected in Athens later this week for meetings with top Greek officials. In October, IIF members agreed to accept a 50% reduction in the face value of their Greek bonds.

Greece needs to clinch a deal to secure further bailout funds from its eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund, in order to stave off a default in March when €14.5bn of its bonds mature.

Under the proposal tabled by banks, private creditors will voluntarily accept a nominal 50% discount, or haircut, on their Greek bond holdings in return for a mix of cash and new bonds. They would swap their old bonds for new ones at 35% of their face value and an average coupon of 5%, along with a cash payment amounting to 15% of the old bonds' face value. This could lead to a bigger "net present value" loss of 60% to 65% for private creditors.

However, the proposal also includes a sweetener which would allow for a bigger return on the new bonds if the economy does better than expected. And it asks that the new bonds should have "pari passu" status which means holders would have priority in claiming assets in case of default.

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1/10

2012-01-10T17:11:00.000-08:00

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The Guardian is reporting:

Highest ever ECB deposits fuel fears of new credit crunch

Overnight borrowing at the ECB has risen further to €482bn.

That is a new record up from €464bn earlier this week, itself a record.

Greece's quiet bank run continues....

New data released by the Bank of Greece this afternoon showed that the total deposits owned by Greek businesses and households fell by 2% in November. That's not a major drop, except that deposits have been leaking out of Greek banks for months.

Total deposits are now 17% lower than a year ago, at just below €173bn, down from €176.4bn in October.

European markets were cheered on Tuesday by an absence of terrible news and an assurance by Fitch that France's AAA credit rating was unlikely to be downgraded in 2012.

Fitch assurance on France's AAA rating helps cheer markets

Whether or not Standard & Poor's will eventually downgrade France, depriving it of its AAA credit rating, Fitch will not, at least this year.

"On the basis of some current economic and fiscal trends in France...we wouldn't expect to downgrade France this year, unless there is a material deterioration in the eurozone", Ed Parker, head of EMEA sovereign ratings, told Reuters.

Fitch has put Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus on negative watch, with a conclusion expected by March.

Portugal's economy will contract by 3.1% this year, according to its central bank.

Portugal's economy faces "virtual stagnation" in 2013, and will contract by 3.1% this year, the Bank of Portugal has said.

The falls will come as a result of an unprecedented fall in private consumption, the bank said in its quarterly economic bulletin.

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1/9

2012-01-09T18:26:00.000-08:00

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Clock ticking as Greece races to avoid default

Germany Auctions Bills With Negative Yield Amid Debt Crisis

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1-6 Stock Market Video

2012-01-06T06:42:00.000-08:00

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An interesting analysis by Zerohedge shows the world's three biggest central banks - the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan - have grown their balance sheets to a combined $8 trillion - more than 25% of the world's GDP.

Top Three Central Banks Account For Up To 25% Of Developed World GDP

CNBC is reporting:

Commercial banks' overnight deposits at the ECB hit a new record high of 455 billion euros ($582.3 billion), indicating banks prefer the safety of the central bank to higher rates they could get by lending to each other.

Eurozone unemployment hits new record

AAII Sentiment Survey Suggests Complacency: Bulls 48.88 % / Bears 17.16 %

Morgan Stanley Warns 42,000 "Jobs" Bogus Due To Seasonal Quirk

Unemployment near three-year low

Unemployment Falls to 8.5%; 200,000 New Jobs Created

5.6 million Americans — 42.5 percent of the unemployed — have been jobless for more than six months, a figure that was unchanged in December

Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate

Fitch Cuts Hungary to 'Junk' on 'Unorthodox' Policies

Labor Force Participation At Lowest Since 1984

AAII has just recorded one of the lowest prints for Bearish Investor Sentiment ever

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1/5

2012-01-05T16:29:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below. It just finished processing on youtube, so it will be a little fuzzy if you watch it right now. It clears up in about 10 minutes or so.

The Guardian is reporting on France's debt auction:

The good news is that France managed to sell nearly €8bn of debt, as planned. The bad news is that demand for its 10-year bonds fell sharply, while the interest rate demanded by investors rose.

France sold €4bn of 10-year bonds at an average yield of 3.29%, up from 3.18% at the last auction of this type. The bid-to-cover ratio (measuring the amount of bids tabled versus the debt on offer) fell to just 1.643%, down from 3.046%.

In comparison, Germany managed to sell 10-year Bunds yesterday at a yield of just 1.93% -- but was left with €1bn unsold.

Here's a list of the latest yields on 10-year bonds:

Germany: 1.872% (down 0.05 percentage points)
France: 3.375% (up 0.03 percentage points)
Spain: 5.59% (up 0.1 percentage points)
Italy: 7.07% (up 0.11 percentage points)
UK: 2.053% (up 0.002 percentage points)

The Guardian also reported on the state of Hungary:

Today's disappointing Hungarian debt auction comes as analysts continue to speculate that the country could default on its debt this year - pushing Europe into yet more chaos.

To avoid a default, Hungary needs to agree a new credit line with the International Monetary Fund. Negotiations between the pair stalled, though, over the Hungarian government's insistance on making changes to the country's central bank - a move denounced as a takeover by its own governor.

It's hard to imagine that Hungary could bear the weight of borrowing at nearly 10% for long. Today's auction may only have added £90m to its debt pile, but it needs to roll over $16.5bn in 2012.

UniCredit leads European shares lower for 2nd day

UniCredit's capital hike is first big test for European banks

Bank of America's Newest Risk: UniCredit Sale

UniCredit Drops After Announcing 43% Discount on $9.8 Billion Rights Offer

1/4

2012-01-04T18:18:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

John Crudele - Jobless black hole

UniCredit's capital hike is first big test for European banks

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1/3 Stock Market Video

2012-01-03T19:26:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

Stocks Kick Off 2012 With a Bang, Led by Banks

Greece: Clinch bailout or face euro exit

12/30 Stock Market Video

2011-12-30T19:05:00.000-08:00

Please don't forget to make a donation this weekend. It is important that you get that in right away. I must have your help in order to continue. The stock market video is posted below headlines. Happy New Year!!!!!!!

The Guardian reported today:

The tax rises and spending cuts announced today in Spain are being introduced as extensions to the 2011 budget (which was introduced by the previous administration, before it was ousted by Mariano Rajoy's right-wing Popular Party in November's elections).

That means that the Spanish people face the prospect of more austerity measures being announced in just a few months, when the 2012 budget is drawn up. It is meant to be agreed by the end of March next year.

3.05pm: The news that Spain missed its deficit target for 2011 has not caused much alarm in the financial markets. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds is broadly flat this afternoonat 5.15%, compared with Italy's 7.05%.

That's because Spain's national debt, at 66% of its economy, is rather less of a worry than Italy's 120% debt-to-GDP ratio. Spain's primary problems are its huge unemployment, and the slump in its property sector. It's not clear that either are addressed by today's cutbacks.

See the link to this story below.

Spain announces tax rises after missing deficit target

Spain makes €9bn budget cuts to cover rising deficit

And on Thursday the Guardian reported:

Italy sold €7bn of government debt in the latest test of market confidence in the eurozone. The auction was something of a mixed bag -- the country had hoped to raise as much as €8.5bn, but there was also some relief that bond yields fell back below 7%. Italy sold €2.5bn of 10-year bonds (maturing in March 2022) at an average yield of 6.979%. So, very close to the 7% mark where borrowing costs are seen as unsustainable.

See the links on the Italian bond auction directly below.

Italian yields above 7% after lackluster auction

Italian sale only raises €7.017bn, versus €8.5bn maximum target; Yields fall at Italian debt sale

Italian bond auction highlights eurozone nation's woes

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
After big climbs and falls, stocks end year where they started

Flash Crash Threatens to Return With a Vengeance

Oil price ending 2011 near $100 a barrel

Gold's 10 percent gain in 2011 extends run to 11th year

$6.3tn wiped off markets in 2011

Warning: Some may be offended by Daniel Hannan's comments below, but he does a good job driving home his point. Don't watch it, if you think you might be offended.

Daniel Hannan speaking in the debate on the conclusions of the European Council meeting December 8-9. There will be two parallel treaty stuctures, the European Union (EU) and the Fiscal Union (FU). The EU and the FU. The intials that uniquely summarize the attitude which eurozone leaders take to their own people.

Please make a donation this weekend.

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12/29

2011-12-29T18:41:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

I need your help. Please donate to this site if you want me to be able to continue. Donations aren't coming in and I'm getting a little bit frustrated. Please consider helping out.

Stocks up on new home deals, job growth prospects

Eurozone faces tough hurdles early in 2012

Market Plagued by Financial Dissonance

12/28 Stock Market Video

2011-12-28T17:40:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines.

Commentary:

In the video I spoke about the debt auction in Italy today, and the longer term debt auction it will have on Thursday. We are seeing significant improvement in the yields with both Italy and Spain's auctions, but yields will jump back up if S&P ends up downgrading Europe. So I think the recent declines we've seen in borrowing costs for Italy in Spain are going to be short lived. If S&P downgrades eurozone members, we could actually see borrowing costs exceed the previous levels. I believe that we will soon see a downgrade of several European nations as well as many European banks by S&P credit rating agency.

I want to thank those that did help support this site recently, but I have got to have more of you stand with me. Please partner with me by making a contribution to this site today. I need you to do this in order to continue. All donations are welcome.

Oil price falls as Saudis trump Iran threat

Stocks slide; S&P 500 turns negative for year

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12/27 Stock Market Video

2011-12-27T17:54:00.000-08:00

Please help. I need many more of you to help at this time. Please be faithful in supporting this site. Thanks. The video is posted below the headlines.

Iran threatens to stop Gulf oil if sanctions widened

The Case-Shiller index showed prices dropped in October from September in 19 of the 20 cities tracked

Consumer confidence index surges in December

Please get your December donation in today.

Same video, smaller size.

12/24

2011-12-23T22:43:00.000-08:00

Update 12/24: The video is posted below. Thanks for waiting. Sorry for the delayed post, but I was visiting with my family from out of town. Merry Christmas to you all. Please take the time to support this site. I do need your help at this time.

12/22

2011-12-22T19:33:00.001-08:00

The video is posted below. Please help if you can right now. Donations are way down for the month. I need your help to continue.

Signs Point to Economy’s Rise, but Experts See a False Dawn

Jobless claims drop signals economic momentum

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12/21

2011-12-21T16:24:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below. The video will show that it is unavailable until it is done processing. So give a chance and then try to start the video again. I do need everyone to help. Donations need to come in to keep this site going. Please make a donation today.

U.S. Faces 2013 Fitch AAA Downgrade Unless Deficit Cuts Made

Fitch again warns U.S. debt burden threatens AAA rating

12/20

2011-12-20T16:27:00.001-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines. Please help support this site by getting in your December donation. I do need your help at this time.

50 Economic Numbers From 2011 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe

German data lifts gloom, ECB funds eyed

Stocks soar on Europe hopes, strong housing starts

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12/19 Stock Market Video

2011-12-19T18:25:00.000-08:00

The stock market video is posted below.Please take a moment to support this site. If you find this information useful, then please support this site. I need your help in order to keep this site going

French credit downgrade could come 'within days'

ECB President Draghi Warns on Euro Zone Break-Up

Experts see possible power struggle in North Korea

N. Korea test-fires short-range missiles: report

Home builder sentiment rises for third month: NAHB

E.C.B. Warns of Dangers Ahead for Euro Zone Economy

Bank of America shares close below $5

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12/16

2011-12-16T07:22:00.000-08:00

The stock market video is posted below the headlines. Please take the time to support this site.

With Fitch's negative outlook for France and other Eurozone members, there is now a lot of chatter that Standard & Poor's will cut France's AAA rating this weekend. I told you last weekend, after the EU Summit, that EU members would have their outlook reviesed to negative and/or that there would be numerous downgrades. Again, I want to reiterate, I believe there is a very good chance of S&P downgrading Germany, France and many others in the Eurozone this weekend. And if they don't, I believe that this event will take place very soon.

Please take a moment to support this site. If you find this information useful, then please support this site. I need your help in order to keep this site going.

Wall Street rally fades after warnings on Europe

France’s Outlook Is Revised to Negative by Fitch

Fitch has placed Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus on rating watch negative

Euro Weakens After Fitch Warns of Downgrade for France, Italy

Moody's cuts Belgium ratings by 2 notches

Consumer prices flat in November

Economist Michael Pento: Maastricht Lite

Senate leaders reach last-minute accord

Economist Robert Samuelson: Europe’s economic purgatory

IMF's Lagarde warns of return to Great Depression - 15 December 2011

IMF warns that world risks sliding into a 1930s-style slump

The IMF must realise that, in Greece, the treatment is worse than the disease

Greeks fearing collapse of eurozone bailout pulled record sums from bank

EFSF’s Regling Says €3 Trillion Already on Table for Euro Rescue

Dec 12- U.S. Stocks Decline on Moody's Ratings Review

BofA, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Credit Ratings Cut by Fitch

Fed won't bail Europe out, Bernanke tells lawmakers

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12/15

2011-12-15T17:31:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below. The video will work once it has finished processing. So be be patient.

Spain sees good demand, lower cost in debt auction

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12/14 Stock Market Video

2011-12-14T18:09:00.000-08:00

The stock video is posted below today's headlines.

Italy Bond Yields Hit New High; Germany's Near Zero

Wall Street stacks up losses as global risks rise

Euro Falls Below $1.30 as Italy Finance Costs Rise; Krone Slumps

Euro Crisis Shows Dutch Converge With Germany

Euro Skids to 11-Month Low vs Dollar, Fed Weighs

OPEC Agrees to Limit Oil Output: Venezuela Minister

Iran army declines comment on MP's Hormuz exercise remarks

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12/13

2011-12-13T19:32:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

Retail sales growth weak in November

Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected in Nov., Up 0.2%

Greek Budget Deficit Widens, Construction Plunges

Fed points to risks from Europe

Same video, smaller size.

12/12 Stock Market Video

2011-12-12T17:28:00.000-08:00

The stock market video is posted below.

Moody's: Pressure Remains on Euro Sovereigns Despite Summit Deal

Italian Bond Yields Near Record at 1-Year Auction

EU Banks Slash Sovereign Holdings

Wall Street tumbles on Europe, Intel's outlook

The real unemployment rate is 11 percent

Stocks Slide on Euro Fears; Finish Off Lows

Euro zone fiscal pact fails to restore confidence

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12/9

2011-12-09T18:36:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines. It will play once it has finished processing.

Worries grow over IMF loans to Europe

Euro crisis: Britain stands alone after PM David Cameron’s historic veto

Europe's New Deal: Some Winners—and One Loser

David Cameron: 'my job is to stand up for Britain'

Eurozone banking system on the edge of collapse

new euro measures a 'confidence trick'

Moody's Downgrades Three French Banks

Europe pushes ahead with fiscal union, UK isolated

Time to Position for a Strong Dollar?

Same video, smaller size.

12/8

2011-12-08T18:20:00.001-08:00

Alert: Important news coming out of Europe posted directly below.

FTSE CAC, DAX to Open Lower; UK Vetoes Euro Treaty

EU Leaders Agree Fiscal Pact, Falter on Treaty Change

The video is posted below the headlines.

Bank Stress Test: Biggest Gaps in Italy, Spain, Germany

ECB cuts rate, tempers hopes for bigger bond buys

Lack of ECB bond-buying plan sends stocks lower

More AP Spin: Hiring outlook brightens as jobless claims fall

David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy clash as leaders wrangle over euro deal

ECB boss Mario Draghi's baptism of fire

The eurozone plan is a con

12/7

2011-12-07T17:40:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines.

France and Germany spell out tough terms for euro

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner nudging EU Leaders to Defuse a Debt Crisis

Oil slips as US supplies grow with weak demand

Stocks mixed; traders fear delay to Europe deal

IMF Denies Report G20 Mulling $600 Bln Lending Facility

Europe's banks have £1.5 trillion of toxic assets

S&P may downgrade EU, large euro-zone banks

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12/6 Stock Market Video

2011-12-06T13:44:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

Anxious Greeks Emptying Their Bank Accounts

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12/5 Stock Market Video

2011-12-05T19:17:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

S&P Warns of Broad EU Downgrade Over Debt Crisis

Fed may give loans to IMF to help euro zone: paper

S&P piles pressure on EU budget plan

12/2

2011-12-02T13:33:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines. I had some problems with my mic today, so the sound may sound a bit distant and not very clear. Sorry about that.

Economy Creates 120,000 Jobs, Rate Tumbles to 8.6%

U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

Jobless claims rise above 400,000

Key Charts From The NFP Report: Records In Jobless Duration And People Who Want A Job As Civilian Labor Force Plunges

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12/1

2011-12-01T19:09:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below. Please get your November donation in. November was a tough month due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Italy Is Closer To Collapse Than Anyone Realized, And So Is The World

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11/30

2011-11-30T19:17:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below. Thanks for waiting.

I'm running late. The video I made at first was destroyed while creating it. I was unable to retrive it, so I made another one. How frustrating. So the video will be posted a little bit late. I'll try and have it up by 8:00 p.m. PT. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Central banks act as euro zone crisis rages

Stocks Surge As Bernanke, ECB Throw More Dollars At Europe's Crisis

Euro Basis Swap Perspectives

Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night?

Stocks Rocket 4%, Dow Closes Above 12,000

Central Banks Cut Cost of Borrowing Dollars

Productivity Weaker Than Thought, Wages Slip

Italy Reportedly in Exploratory Talks With IMF for Aid

Central Bank Action Merely 'Buys Time' for Europe

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11/29

2011-11-29T18:53:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines. Please get your donation in today. I really do need your help in order to keep posting.

Eurozone ministers OK $10.7 billion Greek loan

Businesses plan for possible end of euro

Europe ramps up rescue fund, may turn to IMF

Fed Loaned Banks Trillions in Bailout, Bloomberg Reports

Wolfgang Münchau: THE EUROZONE HAS 10 DAYS AT MOST

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11/28

2011-11-28T16:34:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines.

Donations didn't come in over the weekend due to Black Friday and the retailers kicking of the holiday season. So if you could take the time to get it in today, I would appreciate it. I got to have more people make a commitment to this site if I'm going to be able to continue. I can't do it if donations don't come in. Please help.

Fitch Keeps U.S. Credit Rating at ‘AAA’, Cuts Outlook to Negative

Secret Fed Loans Helped Banks Net $13B

Eurozone bailout fund falls short of €1 trillion target

Stock markets boosted by rumours of bailout deal for Italy

UK on the brink of double-dip recession

OECD predicts recessions in UK and eurozone

Prepare for riots in euro collapse

Britain draws up emergency plans for collapse of Euro after warnings Italy needs £500bn bailout

Black Friday Spending Totaled $52 Billion

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11/25

2011-11-25T18:52:00.000-08:00

The stock market video is posted below the headlines.

I know many of you have been busy traveling this week for Thanksgiving, and haven't had time to get your monthly donation in. And now with the retailers kicking off the holiday season this weekend, you have even less time. But if you can take just take a moment to get your donation in this weekend, it would be very helpful. Thank you to everyone who has helped out so far, but I need more of my viewers to partner with me in order to get the job done. Please consider helping out this weekend.

Just click on that yellow donate button to the left of this page.

Daniel Hannan gets it. Well said Daniel!

Eurozone debt crisis: Italian bond yields spike

Why dodging a Greek default could still push up bond yields

Strike-hit Portugal is going to need a bailout on a Greek scale, and Ireland may do too

Italian, Belgian Yields Rise; Bunds Sell-Off

Peter Schiff: Whose Fuse is Shorter?

Jim Rogers: There Has Been Some Forced Selling In The Commodities Complex

Germany's auction flop adds to European debt fears

Italy forced to pay record interest rates at auction

Dow, S&P Log Worst Thanksgiving Week Since 1932

Greeks Drive Hard Bargain as Creditor Talks Start

Moody's cuts Hungary rating to non-investment grade

Germany May Be Open to Euro Zone Bonds: Report

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11/23 Stock Market

2011-11-23T18:22:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below. Once the video has finished processing it will play. But until the processing is complete it won't play. So give it a few minutes and it will be ready to watch.

A special note of thanks to my supporters this Thanksgiving.

I want to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving! I am thankful for a lot of things, but especially for my viewers who have chosen to support this site. You give me the oppotunity to share my passion (technical analysis) with the world each and every day by supporting this blog, and for that I am very thankful. I am so thankful to you for supporting what I am doing. I couldn't do this without you. May you have a wonderful Thanksgiving Day.

Ron

Same video, smaller size.

11/22

2011-11-22T14:04:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines.

Futures taking a hit right now. The pennant on SPY, dicussed in tonight's video looks like it will push prices lower tomorrow.

Futures

It’s becoming increasingly difficult for me to continue to provide this service of a daily video without much support. There are many costs to bring you this information and a lot of time is spent producing each video. By making a donation, you are supporting the research and production time that goes into making each and every video. If you would like to join in supporting this website, in order to keep it going, then please make a donation today.

Thanks,

Ron

Fed announces fourth round of bank stress tests

Economic Growth Just 2%, Well Below Earlier Estimate

Third Quarter GDP Revised Downward by 20 Percent

Reuters Spin Alert: Third-quarter growth cut on weak inventories

It would be very encouraging to get your donation today.

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11/21 Stock Market Video

2011-11-21T18:08:00.000-08:00

Please make a donation today. Not very many donations have came in over the weekend. I know folks are starting to travel for the holidays right now, but I do despartly need your in order to keep the site going. I need those of you who didn't get a chance to make a donation over the weekend to do it today.

Regime Change: Vote Germany Out of Euro

The supercommittee sell-off: Dow loses almost 250

Moody's Warns On French Rating Outlook

Spanish Conservatives Win General Elections

Why Europe's Central Bank May End Up Printing Money

Please make a donation for November.

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11/18

2011-11-18T22:46:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

I really need you to come through for me this month. Please help support this site with a donation. I need your help right now so I can continue to make these videos. Make a donation this weekend.

Supercommittee failure could trigger US credit downgrade, economists warn

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11/17

2011-11-17T19:01:00.000-08:00

The video is posted below.

Please take a moment to get your monthly donation in. I need you stand with me and support this site. Please help out by supporting this site and I'll do my best bring you the best information I can. But I've got to have your help in order to do that. So please get that donation in. More sell signals today, let's see if Fat Fingers pushes the wrong buttons again, like he did back in the flash-crash. Ron

Same video, smaller size.

11/16

2011-11-16T17:34:00.000-08:00

The video will be posted in a bit. Please take the time to support this website. I need donations in order to bring you this information each day. So please click on the donate button and make a contribution. I need my viewers to all pitch in, so that I can continue to make these videos. Thanks.

U.S. Banks Face Serious Risk From Europe: Fitch

Forget About Italy and Greece, Spain Next on Agenda

ECB Should Not Pick Up Tab for Euro Crisis: Official

Greek Govt Set to Win Confidence Vote, Cracks Emerge

Why Italy's Borrowing Costs Will Need to Fall Soon

Oil hits $100 as US economy slowly improves

Same video, smaller size.

11/15

2011-11-15T19:00:00.000-08:00

Futures taking a hit at the moment (see the link directly below). The video is posted below the headlines.

Futures

Eurozone crisis: Italian bond yields hit 7% again on 'most worrying day'

Eurozone crisis: countries may be 'pushed out' of single currency

Euro soft as debt crisis threatens more EU members

France draws fire after "alarm bells" warning

Economist Michael Pento: Draghi Borrows Paulson's Bazooka

European Growth Fails to Accelerate in Third Quarter as Debt Slows Demand

Retail Sales Jump, Producer Prices Ease in October

There Is ‘No Way Out’ for Europe: Economist

Spain Yields Rise in Auction; Triple-As Under Pressure

New Italian, Greek Governments Race to Limit Damage

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11/14 Stock Market Video

2011-11-14T18:24:00.001-08:00

The video is posted below the headlines.

Asian Shares Decline as Euro Zone Yields Rise

Greece's New Coalition Is Already Divided Over Austerity

East Europe’s Growth Likely Faltered as Debt Crisis Intensified

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11/11

2011-11-11T23:10:00.000-08:00

As you know two weeks ago my uncle under went surgery for his heart condition. A week ago we weren't sure if he was going to pull through. I wanted to let everyone know that he was released from the hospital today. My family is so thrilled about the improvement in his health. I want to thank you for your thoughts and prayers during this family crisis. The video is posted below.

Same video, smaller size.

11/10 Stock Market Video

2011-11-10T18:40:00.001-08:00

The video is posted below.

11/9

2011-11-09T17:46:00.000-08:00

The video is posted the headlines. the video will say unavalible until it has finished processing. Once complete you should be able to click on it to watch it. So if the video appears not to be working, give it time to finish processing. Keep your eye on Europe, things are starting to fall apart, as I told you they would.

European debt crisis spiralling out of control

Italy's Woes Signal 'Dangerous Phase' in EU Crisis: El-Erian

Italy Rates Top 7%, Stocks In Tailspin

Greek Unity Deal Is in Disarray Amid Squabbles

Italy at Breaking Point, Merkel Calls for 'New Europe'

Stocks End Down Over 3% on Euro Zone Fears

Market Selloff: 'Contagion Spreading; They've Got to Stop This'

Greek unity government talks end without agreement - Wednesday 9 November 2011

Italy Faces More Turbulence Despite Planned Berlusconi Exit

65% Chance of Banking Crisis by End November

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11/8

2011-11-08T18:00:00.001-08:00

The stock market video is posted below the headlines. Keep your eyes on Europe and the Euro.

Berlusconi to resign after parliamentary setback

Italy Nears Tipping Point as Its Bond Yields Climb

Italian bond yields rise, jitters weigh on euro

Italy's Berlusconi to resign after reforms pass

Eurozone debt crisis: Berlusconi to resign after austerity budget passed

Same video, smaller size.

11/7 Stock Market Video

2011-11-06T23:51:00.000-08:00

Tonight's video is posted below. Keep your eyes on Europe and the Euro.

Make sure you read the first article down posted over the weekend. Sunday night I posted an update regarding the margin call story. Also read the story directly below. Some actually agrees with me that the euro will cause a depression and that Europe is moving into a depression. I'm glad I found this, now I don't feel so lonely and like the only member of the European Depression club.

The Euro 'Event' Will Cause Depression: HSBC

France Gambles on New Budget Cuts as Growth Slows

11/4

2011-11-05T00:15:00.000-07:00

Attention: Read the article posted below. It looks like the Monday meltdown margin call might be a false alarm.

Because Of A ZeroHedge Post, Tons Of People Are Worried About A Commodity Market Meltdown On Monday

Thanks for waiting. The video is posted under the headlines.

Most of the unemployed no longer receive benefits

CME Goes To Collateral DefCon 1: Makes intenance Margin Equal To Initial For... Everything!?

Beware the 7th of November: At Least $1 Billion Needed

Retail sales fall short of expectations

How can Reuters write the next headline with a straight face? Are they out of their minds?

Jobs report hints at some improvement

Greece's prime minister survives confidence vote

Stocks slide ahead of confidence vote in Greece

What are they smoking over at the AP?
Job market improves modestly as unemployment falls

Economist Michael is no longer writing a daily article after leaving Euro Pacific Capital, but he does still write from time to time.
Michael Pento: The Zombie Club Of Nations

European Central Bank delivers a surprise interest rate cut

US Needs To Generate 262,500 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term

G-20 Fails to Agree on Use of IMF Resources as Europe Is Pressured to Act

Israeli president: Clock ticking on Iran

Greek premier struggles to end political deadlock

Corzine steps down at collapsed firm, hires lawyer

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11/3

2011-11-03T17:57:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below.

We've had several opportunities over the last 4 days to find short positions based on some of the bearish signals we've seen. Today brought more opportunities our way, as the S&P 500 filled its gap and formed a rising wedge in the 15-minute timeframe. Let's see how the jobs report impacts the market tomorrow.

Same video, smaller settings.

11/2

2011-11-02T18:00:00.001-07:00

The stock market video is posted below.

Attention: My favorite uncle had heart pain last Friday and had heart surgery over the weekend. They believe he had a heart attack. Due to this crisis, I've fallen behind on my email over the last four days. I will try and respond to your emails by Friday. Thanks for understanding and for your patience. Read my commentary below.

We have a potential Head & Shoulders topping pattern forming on the 15-minute chart. I found it after I made the video when I was updating my charts. You can see it on page 5 of my public chart list, which is linked to the left of the page. You can also see it on the 5-minute chart at the bottom of page 1. Let's watch and see if the gap fills to test the 1256-1258 overhead resistance or not. Momentum is down and the histogram may try and move into negative territory on the S&P 500. It already has on the Nasdaq, producing a bearish cross on the MACD today. You can see the Nasdaq charts on page 7. I'm looking for a conclusion to minor wave 1. I believe that intermediate wave 3 has begun and that the first two waves that form are going to provide traders with some shorting opportunities. We've already gotten several sell signals over the last two days, and I think there will be more to come.

same video, smaller size.

11/1

2011-11-01T13:17:00.000-07:00

As October closes, I want to ask for your assistance. If you didn't get your October donation in, it is not to late. You can make it today. If you want me to keep providing updates through out November, then please help support this site. Please make your October donation today if you haven't already made it. I got to have your help in order to continue to provide these updates.
Greek Vote Threatens Bailout In Europe

Greek govt 'on verge of imploding'

European Banks Sink on Greek Vote Bombshell

Please don't forget to make your October donation.

Same video, smaller size.

10/31

2011-10-31T17:39:00.000-07:00

Please make a donation as we close out October. I need your help if you want me to keep this site going. The video is posted below.

Go look at the euro daily chart on page 1 of my public chart list. It is the 9th chart down on page 1. The euro got a reversal today as the bearish harami pattern was confirmed. The trendline broke, the euro closed below the 10-day MA and the ADX got a bearish DI cross. It closed back below the 200-day MA, the stochastic broke below 80 and the histogram completed a bearish divergence. I think the euro may have peaked and more people are coming to realize that this european agreement is little more than a sham to prop up the market. i didn't have time to cover the euro in the video, so make sure you check out the chart on my public chart list, it is linked to the left of this page just under the donate buttons. Please don't forget to get your donation in.

same video, smaller settings.

10/28

2011-10-28T22:23:00.000-07:00

If you want the site to continue during the month of November, then please help me keep it going. The video is posted below the headlines.

EU Euphoria May Fade Under Post-Summit Scrutiny

Cheers and Skepticism Greet European Deal

EU reaches agreement on Greek bonds

Dollar Decline in Full Swing in Risk-On Environment

Same video, smaller size.

10/27

2011-10-27T16:55:00.000-07:00

Please help out with a donation. I need your help to keep the site going. The video is posted below.

EU reaches agreement on Greek bonds

Same video, smaller size

10/26

2011-10-26T13:05:00.001-07:00

I have posted the video below in it's normal size. Below it, the video has been posted a bit smaller if you are having problems seeing the entire video. It is the same video. Please help me keep this site going. Donations are way down and I'm a bit frustrated. It takes a huge amount of time to provide you with this information each day, if you want me to continued these detailed updates then please help me by supporting this site. I really need you to come through for me by making a donation today.

ONE TRILLION EUROS

China to the Rescue

Wall Street ends higher on summit hopes

Greek Bond 'Haircut' of 50% Appears Set: Sources

U.S. Stocks Advance as EU Leaders Agree on Bank Plan

Stocks rally on euro rescue plan; euro still down

EU sets new bank rules, struggles over crisis plan

Please make a donation today. I have to have your help.

10/25

2011-10-25T19:27:00.000-07:00

Thanks for waiting, the video is posted below. The video is posted a bit smaller under the first video down. So if you are having problems viewing the video watch it on the smaller screen.

For some reason processing on the video has been going at a snails pace the last two days. I'll try and figure out what the problem is later tonight. The video will likely be posted at 7:50 p.m. PT. Sorry for the delay. Please help support this site for the month of October. I need more people to help in order to justify going on. Please make a donation today.

Stocks End Sharply Lower on EU Worries

Europe: Grimmer by the minute

10/24

2011-10-24T19:21:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below.

Please take the time to support this site. I need your help at this time.

US States Are Facing Total Debt of Over $4 Trillion

10-21

2011-10-21T23:02:00.000-07:00

Please help keep this site going by making a donation.

10/20

2011-10-20T18:00:00.000-07:00

If you would like me to continue these daily updates, then please help support this site. I need your support at this time.The video is posted below the headlines.

EUROPE BRACES FOR 'DOWNGRADE BLITZ'...

France Likely to Lose Top Rating: S&P

More cuts voted in Greece; riots leave 100 hurt

Stocks end mixed as Europe haggles over debt fix

10/19 Stock Market Video

2011-10-19T16:49:00.000-07:00

I posted my video early today at 4:49 p.m. PT. Please help support this site. I need donations if you want me to keep going. If you want me to continue then please make a donation.

Stocks Drop, Euro Erases Gain as Division Arises in European Crisis Talks

Further austerity measures approved in Greece

Greek protest against budget cuts turns violent

Americans' Standard of Living Drops

Please make a donation today.

10/18

2011-10-18T18:22:00.001-07:00

The video is posted below the headlines.

Apple reported earnings after hours today, fourth quarter earnings missed Wall Street expectations. Apple's stock fell $28.26, or 6.7 percent, to $393.98 in afterhours trading following the release of results. So we will watch and see if this produces some weakness in the market tomorrow. Apple got a doji candle today on it's daily chart. The selloff after hours will likely mark that as a reversal candle. Please make a donation to this site so that I can keep it going. I want to continue to bring you daily updates, but I need your support in order to do that. See the Apple chart below.

Apple Daily Chart

Stocks jump on reports of progress in Europe

Moody's downgrades Spanish government debt ratings

In rare miss, Apple 4Q earnings disappoint

Please help support this site.

10/17 Stock Market Video

2011-10-17T18:50:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below.

Please take a moment to support this site. I am able to provide this information each day by your faithful donations to this site. Thanks.

Stocks, Euro Fall as Germany Damps Optimism on Europe Debt Plan

Stocks slide as Germany cools hope for debt deal

10/14 Stock Market Video

2011-10-14T23:53:00.001-07:00

10/13

2011-10-13T19:07:00.000-07:00

The stock market video is posted below the headlines.

More Than a Dozen Banks May Get Rate Cut

Asian Stocks Decline on Europe Downgrades

European Stocks Decline From Two-Month High as Roche, Bank Shares Retreat

jobless claims top 400 K again

Europe crisis leaves French G-20 goals in tatters

Spain Credit Rating Downgraded One Notch by S&P

Consumer Data in the Spotlight, as Europe Worries Rise

10/12 Stock Market Video

2011-10-12T17:54:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below. I posted early again tonight.

Wall St. extends gains on euro-fund optimism

EU speeds up capital rules for big banks

10/11

2011-10-11T18:00:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below. I posted early tonight.

10/11

2011-10-11T09:43:00.000-07:00

Watch to see if the 5-minute chart breaks down from the rising wedge and gets a bearish alignment of the moving average trio. See the chart below.

S&P 500 5-Minute

10/10

2011-10-10T17:16:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below tonight's commentary and the headlines.

The S&P 500 is range bound. Prices are doing the side-step, frustrating both bulls and bears alike. See the chart directly below. The S&P 500 jumped above the 50-day MA on light volume today. I will be watching to see if prices now attempt to clear the resisance zone and the 50 percent retracement (the mid point) of the high low price channel on the daily chart. Our swing trade indicators turned bullish today, following the bullish turn in momnetum last week. But we continue to have lower highs in place, so the downtrend continues to dominate prices. The moving averages remain bearish, along with the ADX and the Aroon.

I will be watching to see if we get a higher low at the next pull back to set up an inverse H&S pattern on the hourly charts. If we do get a higher low, it would hint that we have completed intermediate wave 1 and are now carving out wave 2. But my guess is that we still haven't completed intermediate wave 1. If that is the case, we will take out the 1074 low with the next selloff. Key support comes into play at the 1010-1040 area. That is also the area for a potential neckline for a massive H&S topping pattern on the weekly charts. See the charts I've posted directly below.

German push for Greek default risks EMU-wide 'snowball'

S&P 500 Daily Chart

S&P 500 Daily - H&S Top

Stocks soar on European pledge to help banks

Berlin, Paris vow new crisis plan as global pressure builds

Berlin, Paris vow new crisis plan as global pressure builds

EU delays summit to finalize crisis plans

Bear Market Isn't Over Yet Despite This Week's Rally

10/7 stock market video

2011-10-07T11:06:00.001-07:00

The video is posted below the headlines.

Looks like a double top in play on the S&P 500 5- and 15-minutec charts.

I'm watching to see if the S&P 500 has moved into a stage 3 (distribution phase) on the 5-minute chart. The rising wedge broke down, and prices have shuffled sideways carving out a possible double top. Prices are jumping above and below the moving averages causing me to believe that a reversal pattern is setting up in a stage 3 on the 5 minute chart. See the chart linked directly below.

S&P 500 5-Minute

S&P 500 15-Minute

Moody’s Cuts Rating on 12 UK Financial Institutions

Fitch Slices Spain, Italy Credit Rating As EU Crisis Deepens

Half of gains from +45,000 striking VERIZON return

Economy adds 103,000 jobs, but it's not enough

Job Creation Posts Jump, But Rate Still Steady at 9.1%

Job gains ease recession fears but still weak

Merkel said Europe's banks should look to raise money in the private sector

Why Americans Should Care About Failing European Bank Dexia

10/6

2011-10-06T18:49:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below.

World facing worst financial crisis in history, Bank of England Governor says

10-5 Stock Market Video

2011-10-05T18:11:00.000-07:00

I'm sorry for the delay in posting the video yesterday. Youtube was doing site maintenace. So tonight I posted early.

Stocks rise on hopes for European banks

U.S. stocks' massive "melt-up" fans investor fears

10/4

2011-10-04T18:51:00.001-07:00

Attention: READ THIS!!!!!!!! Try and watch the video at the link below.

Video

Updated 8:14 p.m. PT.

Commentary:

Make sure you watch the video later tonight. This Bernanke bounce hasn't changed any of our signals yet. Our momentum and swing trade signals still remain bearish and so do the moving averages. I don't think we have witness capitulation yet. I still think we will tag the support zone between 1010-1040. The objective target for the bear flag pattern is at 1036.

Bernanke warns recovery 'close to faltering'

S&P Bottom Coming?

Fed Prepared to Take Further Steps to Boost Growth

Watch the video at the link below

Video

10/3 Stock Market Video

2011-10-03T17:07:00.000-07:00

The stock market video is posted below my commentary and the headlines.

I'm trying to answer my emails, but I'm getting so many it may take a while to get a reply. Thanks for being patient.

Thank you to everyone that came through this past month by supporting the site. I was getting concerned towards the end of the month that donations were way down, but you came through. Thank you so much to everyone who made contribution during the month of September. I couldn't do this without you. Thank you.

And a special thanks to all my viewers who have recurring donations each month, and those of you who signed up for recurrring donations this month. This is very helpful and I am very grateful to you for supporting my site on an ongoing monthly basis.

A big thank you to all my supporters.

Fat Finger's fingerprints are showing up again.

The market plunged today because Greece was forced to admit that it wouldn't meet its deficit reduction targets, this renewed fears that the country will not get crucial bailout loans it needs to avoid a default.

Remember the buying that took place during the backtest of our bear flag pattern. Speculators bought the dip after prices reversed off the 50 day MA on the S&P 500, betting that Greece would get their bailout and euroland was fixing the problem. Those traders either got stopped out with a loss or are holding a losing position now.

I told you then, and I'll tell you now, the rally was another shorting opportunity because Europe is trouble. I continue to say that Greece is going to go belly up, they will default and Europe is probably going to move into a depression due to the the debt crisis. Many countries in the eurozone have debt problems, it is not just Greece that is the problem. Moreover, I think that the european banks are going to collapse. That's why speculating on long positions right now is just foolish.

I continue remain short this market. We got some awesome entry points for short positions with the reversals off the 50 day MA at 1220 two weeks ago, and then last week at the reversal off the 20 day MA at 1195. The 1195 peak also successfully backtested our bear flag pattern.

The Russell, the S&P 500 and the Tranports all made lower lows today. Let's see if the Nasdaq, Dow and some of the other indexes follow suit and move to lower lows later this week.

Europe slides as Greece misses targets, pushing S&P to edge of bear market

Stocks tank as Greece admits it won't hit targets

Greece to Miss Deficit Targets Despite Austerity

Think the Economy's Bad? 'You Haven't Seen Anything'

Greece Falls Into 'Death Spiral': Rising Debt, No Growth

9/30 Stock Market Video

2011-10-01T01:50:00.001-07:00

Our indicators have allowed me to make some awesome calls this quarter. The Dow lost 12 % this quarter, the Nasdaq 13 % and the S&P 500 got a 14 % haircut. The worst quarter since the financial crisis. But in order to continue to bring you this information each day I need your help. While the market plunged during September, so did my donations. Donations weren't very good in September. Please help me get things back on track by making a donation today. The last two weeks I provided you with awesome sell signals just after the 1220 peak, and then this week with more sell signals as prices backtested the broken trendline of our bear flag pattern at 1195. If you like these kind of bold calls and can use this information, then please help me by supporting the site. Please get your September donation in as we close out the month. I need your help in order to continue. I need your immediate response on this. I do want to thank those that did try and help out during the month. I really appreciate your dedication to my site.

I really need your September donation at this time.

9/29

2011-09-29T19:34:00.000-07:00

The momentum on the Nasdaq offically changed to bearish today in the daily timeframe. Moreover, both the Nasdaq and the Russell got bearish crossovers on their stochastics. Please get your September donation in at this time. I need you to partner with me to keep this site up and running.

Please help support this site.

9/28

2011-09-28T18:34:00.001-07:00

Please help keep this site going. Make a donation today. The video is posted below the commentary.

Commentary:

Donations have be way down during the month of September. Some of you did try and help over the last two days and earlier in the month, but I just got to have more people help out in order to continue. September will be ending in a few days and I'm still track to have the lowest amount of support than any month in 2011. So if you haven't supported the site yet for this month, now is the time to do it. Please make your donation today. Over the weekend I did get a lot of questions about another opportunity to short the market. I'm trying to answer them, and have addressed this in the videos. So if I haven't answered your email yet, please realize that I got bombarded with emails since the weekend and am having a hard time trying to find the time to answer them. Again, I've said that this rally is another shorting opportunity, and have tried to explain what to watch for in the videos.

The shooting star pattern off the 20-day MA on the SPX daily chart got confirmed today, as prices got a follow-through to yesterday's reversal. We also got a successful backtest of the broken lower boundary on our bear flag pattern. The bearish divergence that appeared on the 5- and 15-minute charts did a lot of technical damage today.

Yesterday we got a bearish alignment of the moving averages on the SPX 5-minute chart, and today on the 15-minute. We also the weak MACD on the 30-minute chart yesterday, that has spilled over into the hourly chart of SPX. At the 1230 peak we saw the S&P 500 daily get rejection at the 50-day MA, and at yesterday's 1195, we saw rejection at the 20-day MA. The moving averages on it's daily chart continue to be extremely bearish.

Nasdaq got rejection off the 50-day MA today and pushing it back down to close below the 20-day MA on it's daily chart. The fantastic four remain bearish, the ADX on the S&P 500 remain bearish. Our market breadth indicators remain bearish. The resistance between 1220 -1230 continues to hold, with the 1195 peak on SPX failing to clear it.

We've had 5 opportunities to take new short positons during this rally. Traders will get another one tomorrow if momentum official shifts back down on the histgoram and we have a push lower and close below today's low. Take a look below at the opportunity short sells have had over the last two sessions. But make sure you use good stops. Tight stops can be above the recent 1195 peak. A looser stop can be placed between the 1220-1230 resistance zone. I'm still concerned that the euro might rally in a wave 2, so be very cautious. But today's follow through did a lot of technical damage to the market.

Opportunity is Knocking

1) To short as prices tested the 20-day MA on the daily chart, as the shooting star pattern set-up.

2) To short the bearish divergence on the 5- and 15-minute charts after prices tagged the 20-day MA.

3) To short the bearish alignment of the moving averge trio on the 5-minute chart yesterday.

4) To short the reversal or bearish alignment of the moving average trio today on the 15-minute chart.

5) To short the break below 1163, which validates yesterday's shooting star candlestick.

Please get your donation in.

9/27

2011-09-27T19:42:00.000-07:00

the video is posted below.

Today we got a reversal off some key points of resistance on the S&P 500 and the other averages. The reversal produced a long topping tail candlestick on the S&P 500, Russell and many other averages. We are watching to see if prices reverse off the 20-day MA and then fall to take out the August lows. We still need to see a reversal back down to establish a lower high on the intraday charts in order for this to happen. We need to see prices remain below 1220 in order for this to be a wave 2 of wave 3 of wave 5.

While it looks like a potential reversal off the declining trendline on the daily chart and the 20-day MA, I have to share with you some real troubling issues. The dollar is sporting a bearish divergence, meanwhile the euro has a bullish one. Treasuries also have a bearish divergence that could allow the market to rally up further. These charts make the picture a bit more cloudy. So watch resistance on SPX like hawk.

We need to watch close to see if prices try and close above the 10- and 20-day MA s or if they continue to hold as resistance. Watch to see if we get another lower high or not on SPX. Watch the moving averages on the S&P 500 15-minute chart to see if they turn bearish again or remain bullish.

We need to see some real weakness in the market if we are going to take out the August lows. If we close above the 20-day MA, we will need to close above it for several sessions to change the trend. This rally needs to fail if and the backtest of our bear flag pattern needs to be successful in order to meet it’s objective target of 1019. A sign of strength would be to take out the resistance zone between 1220 - 1230.

So have good stops in place and watch levels of resistance closely. Be ready for anything. We could see another push to shake out weak shorts. But I still remain bearish because the swing trade indicators are still bearish, and so are the moving averages. We need to have the bearish shorting star candlestick patterns confirmed, with a close below today's lows.

9/26

2011-09-26T19:22:00.000-07:00

I really need to have your help this month. Please get your monthlly donation in. I only got a few donations in over the weekend, and right now I'm on track to having the lowest amount of monthly support in 2011. The worst month of the year. I need you to participate if you want me to keep providing you with this information each day. Please consider helping out. I need the amount of donations to dramatically increase in order to continue. Please be faithful and support this site. The video is posted below.

Please help support this site.

9/23 Stock Market Video

2011-09-23T11:55:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below.

I had to go a little longer than I wanted to do an update on Gold. It collapsed this week, just as I anticipated it would with the rally on the dollar. Commodities will continue to correct while the dollar rallies.

Please get your September donation in this weekend. Make sure your ready to take your technical anlaysis S.A.T., by supporting this site. If more of you would consider making a donation, we could easily make this work, but I need you to partner with me. I need your help to do this. The Fall season has begun, and it began with stock market moving into a free fall this week. The histogram and the stochastic gave us an awesome warning of the selling that was about to happen, prior to the selloff.

In order to continue to bring you great signals like that, I need your support. I can't do all this work and only get a few donations. It just won't work. I need everybody to participate. This site requires a tremendous commitment on my part, and it not only takes hours each day to prepare and produce the videos, but to study. I do the work for you so you don't have to. But I need your support.

If this is a service that you want to make sure is here in the future, then support this site. I have to justify my time in making these videos, and if only a few are willing to support it, then it isn't worth my time to continue. A few donations have come in, and I'm grateful for that. And I know everybody's busy with summer ending and vacations over, and everybody's back to school and work. But if you'll just take a moment to get your donation in this weekend, I would appreciate it. I don't tell you how much to donate, I just ask that everyone make a donation.

To those faithful few that have already made a donation this month, I want to say thank you. Thank you for your dedication to this site and for your faithfulness. To those making recurring donations, I also want to say thank you. It really helps when you sign up for automatic donations. Thank you for doing that.

Please get your September donation in this weekend.

12:00 p.m.

We just saw reject of the 50-p EMA on the S&P 500 15 minute chart after a brief rally. Watch to see if this reaction off the 50-p EMA causes negative divergence to play out on the histogram in this timeframe, which will allow the MACD to roll over at the center line.

The second chart below shows the 5 min chart doing the side-step as it is basing. Prices keep jumping above and below the MAs, and the MAs keep moving in and out of bullish alignments. If prices don't break out of the base, we could see more weakness. Gap resistance is holding up, along with the test to the 50 p EMA on the 15 min chart.

S&P 500 15-Minute

S&P 500 5-Minute

9/22

2011-09-22T18:32:00.000-07:00

FAT FINGERS IS BACK!

Attention: The video is posted below my commentary. I'm running late because today is my daughter's birthday, and I wanted to spend some time with her before I made the video. I'm sure you understand.

It's nice when our signals play out like this, but it does get frustrating when I tell you about awesome signals and no one donates to the site. Please donate. I want to provide you with this information, but only a few people have donated to the site this month. Please come through for me. I need you to respond. I'll continue to keep you informed and give advance warning of what will take place, but I need for you to make a donation. Please do that today. It is so depressing to get a lackluster response, after making a week of awesome calls.

Everything is going according to plan. The histogram signals are being proven correct once again. We watched to see if prices would attempt to fill the gap today, but they couldn't. Many of the indexes came down to test other areas of support. There is still the possibility of a gap fill if prices backtest the broken trendlines on the bear flag patterns. I'm watching the 5-minute chart closely to see if it gets a bullish alignment of the moving average trio tomorrow. It is sporting a bullish divergence. At the end of the sesssion prices hopped back above the 50-p EMA. If a bullish alignment of the moving average trio occurs, prices could climb to fill the gap and backtest the broken trendline of the flag pattern. Watch the 1165 to 1180 area if that happens. That is also the area where the upward boundary of the new falling price channel comes into play. I think we have a shot of prices rising back above the 50-period the 15 minute chart to test that trendline, backtest, and fill the gap. We haven't hit the bottom, this is not a bullish move, and there is more downside to come. But if a rally occurs it will be another opportunity to short the market. Also the 10-day MA on the daily chart is at that level, coming in at 1180. The 10- and 20-day MAs are now going to act as resistance.

Now there are no guarantees that we fill the gap, but it looks like the chances are good that it plays out that way. So I'm now going to be looking for a contra-trend that will stall between 1165 to 1180. But please keep in mind that we are likely in wave 3 of 5, and that prices could continue to drop hard. If we do rally tomorrow, we should see today's lows taken out once the rally has concluded. If the MACD on the 5-minute chart rolls over tomorrow, without a bullish alignment of the moving averages, the selling will continue.

If the rally happens, I think we will overshoot the 50 p on the S&P 500 15 minute chart to test the fallling channel line and reverse hard at that point. That is assuming that a contra occurs here. See the 5- and 15-minute charts below.

Lastly, it is possible that we may rally to complete a wave 4 on the 15 minute chart, with only a short lived rally below 1165 (see the 15-min chart), but it does look like we have a clear 5 waves lower. If that is the case, we are now starting an abc move higher.

S&P 500 15-Minute Chart

S&P 500 5-Minute Chart

9/21 Stock Market Video

2011-09-21T12:59:00.000-07:00

Chris Horn from the Twilight Zone
"A Hundred Yards Over the Rim"
signed by Cliff Robertson

R.I.P. Cliff Robertson
1923-2011

In Loving Memory of One of Hollywood's Greatest Actors

The stock video is posted below.

Hey everybody, Fat Fingers is back!Get ready for another plunge.

We got some awesome sell signals yesterday on our momentum indicators and a clear sell signal on the Russell 2000. We saw the other indexes follow suit on the bearish alignment we got the Russell 2 K 15 minute chart. More selling to come!

I gave you warning yesterday that this would happen. If you like these signals, then please help keep this site going with a donation. Donations are off to a slow start, probably because of the choppy price action we've seen so far. But it looks like the previous bearish trend is about to resume. So please consider making a donation now that we've seen a reversal. I need to have your support if I'm going to do this each day. So please be faithful with your support.

Fed’s Operation Twist Isn’t Much to Shout About

Stocks fall after Fed decision to buy bonds

Greek government announces new austerity measures

Please support this site.

9/20

2011-09-20T18:38:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below. You have been redirected here from thechartpatterntrader.com, so I can do some updates. I will post the video here for several days until the updates are complete.

I have a great video for you tonight. Don't miss it. Momentum has shifted on the S&P 500 on a closing basis. With the down tick we got at the end of the session. The Russell 2000 has officially shifted momentum on both a closing basis and an intraday basis. It closed below yesterday's close and intraday low. The Russell 2 K has also closed below it's 10- and 20-day MA. Moreover, producing a lower high and a lower low. I am now short the Russell based on today's gap fill. I will add to my short positions if I see further weakness tomorrow. I will short the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and maybe even the financials tomorrow if we see further weakness on the 15-minute charts. I'm looking for the bearish alignment of the moving averages and the for prices to move to lower lows, like what we already saw on the Russell 15 minute chart.

I have some great information for you. Stuff your just not going to hear anywhere else. I'll help you understand what is going on, but I need a commitment out of you to donate to this site. Yesterday, I explained why I thought the surge in the dollar would collapse the market. Today I explain what could happen if the Fed resurrects Operation Twist rather than starting QE3. However, I do think QE3 will happen, just not now. I'll explain Operation Twist in the video. But if you like this information, then please support this site. See that donate button on the left side of the page. Click on it and make your doantion today.

Please make a donation today.

August home building fell 5 pct., slide continues

EU, IMF raise concerns over bank capital

Please take the time to support this site.

9/19 Update

2011-09-19T06:47:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below.

You will be redirected here to watch the video until I am done with the updates at the other site. Please take a moment to click on the donate button to the left of the page, and make a donation. It would be very encouraging if some of you made a donation.

A Greek tragedy: How the debt crisis spread like a virus in 'Contagion'

Lenders press Greece to shrink state and avoid default

S&P cuts Italy ratings one notch, outlook negative

1.5 Trillion in New Taxes

9/16

2011-09-16T21:04:00.000-07:00

Important notice:

I am doing some updates on my site thechartpatterntrader.com, so that site will redirect you here for a few days, until the updates are completed. Also read the articles posted below. I still think Greece goes belly up.

Greece Nears a Tipping Point in Its Debt Crisis

The future of Greece rests on a phone call

The video is posted below.

Attention: I closed my short positions at the open on Friday as prices moved further into the resistance zone. All signals are now bullish, therefore no short positions should be held at this time. It is now a favorable environment for longs until we see the signals change.

Please take a moment to make a donation to this site. A lot of time and effort goes into providing you with this information. So please help out with a donation. Click on the donate button to the left of this page. All swing and momentum trade signals remain on buy. Momentum indicators turned bullish early in the week and our swing trade signals turned bullish on Thursday. Keep your eyes on Europe in the weeks and months head. We could see violent moves in the market due the debt crisis in europe and the problems that are facing banks there.

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9/15

2011-09-15T19:37:00.001-07:00

9/14

2011-09-14T18:50:00.000-07:00

Go read my commentary on Euroland at thechartpatterntrader.com.

9/13

2011-09-13T20:04:00.000-07:00

The video is posted below. I had some problems with my connection to the internet earlier today. So I was delayed in making the video. It shows how we are all at the mercy of technology.

I wrote a commentary about our mixed signals below. But let me be clear, I still believe that Europe's banks are in trouble and the Greece will default. This will allow the bear market to continue for a long time.

I hope September Keeps its Bad Reputation

Unfortunately we still have mixed signals on our swing trade indicators. Our momentum indicators still remain bearish. I'm still betting on another leg lower to carve out our 5th wave. However, I do see some things that trouble me, but I am determined to trust the BPI of the S&P 500. It usually gives me successful trades and awesome signals. Therefore, while I recognize that there are still certain risks here, I've made the decisiion that I'm going to trust my indicators. I'm short at the trendline of resistance. That is where a head & shoulders top formed on the 5-minute chart. I'm playing that pattern. Now if we see some strength then I will end up being stopped out at overhead resistance. This is the resistance zone seen on the daily chart in the video.

I am determined to trust the BPI because it is usually right. However, I realize that no indicator is perfect, but it has given us so many great signals, that I'm willing to put my trust in it now. If the trade doesn't pan out, then sobeit, I'll find another trade elsewhere. We've made a lot of money using the BPI, so even if this trade doesn't pan out, we are still way ahead of the game.

If you used the BPI's last 4 signals, you should have lock in huge gains since the May highs. I still think the bear flag pattern plays out, but I'm not going to bury my head in the sand should we try and hop back above the 10- and 20-day MAs and clear the declining trendline on the S&P 500 daily chart. I don't think we will, but there is still a risk that could happen. Use good stops and watch the intraday charts for clues of a directional move. I'm looking for another lower high, let's see if we get it or not. I sure hope September keeps its bad reputation this month.